GIVAS stands for Global Impact and Vulnerability Alert System. Why do we need
another new system, for what purpose and what will it look like once
operational?
Why another system ...? The rationale for this initiative is based on two
realizations : global crises have been changing, becoming more complex and
interconnected. But we are not adequately equipped to respond, operating with
20th century tools and thinking in the new Millennium.
We are facing a new, more dangerous type of global crisis today. Local,
regional and even sectoral crises are becoming increasingly and much more
quickly global in scale. Think food, fuel, finance but of course also
climate change and disease outbreaks ... They follow each other at quicker
intervals than ever before, often intersecting so that it becomes difficult
to differentiate and attribute impact. There is a dangerous multiplier effect
at play. For the most vulnerable populations this has become a disastrous
mix, pushing coping strategies to the limit. It slides people deeper into
poverty, but also greatly jeopardizes the lives of those who had managed to
build a relatively secure livelihood. These crises may be global in scope,
but they are deeply local in impact.
Our response mechanisms seem to be outdated or at least no longer quick
enough to allow us to respond effectively. We have become quite proficient
at responding to humanitarian emergencies, disease outbreaks ... but on the
development side our mindsets have been programmed more long term. We used to
think that economic and social indicators take years to register change. This
new type of crisis has awoken us to a new reality: there is a danger that
dramatic shifts in welfare could happen right in front of our eyes without
the 20/20 vision we need. The food, fuel and financial crises have shown that
there is a wide information gap between when a crisis hits the most
vulnerable and when data on what is happening finally emerges. Our actions
clearly can't be based on anecdotes; they need hard data and evidence.
For what purpose ...? The GIVAS is intended to help fill this gap by linking
together existing early warning systems and making better use of new
innovative ways of collecting real time data. The system is both intended to
show impact (i.e. what's happening right now) and raise alarm bells as to
potentially dramatically worsening vulnerabilities (i.e. what could happen if
we don't act). It's main purpose is to ensure that we have the information
and analysis needed to protect our most vulnerable populations against
crisis. It is a tool to ensure that the Millennium Development Goals have a
chance.
What will it look like once operational ...? The GIVAS is a
work-in-progress. It needs to be developed with the expertise of many
creative minds: Governments, UN agencies, civil society organizations,
academia, the private sector and creative individuals ... We will use this
website to update you on progress and involve those interested in our
discussions.
The GIVAS is an ambitious undertaking that can only be successful if
implemented with a larger vision, but a measured, realistic pace. As part of
the way forward, we will need to tackle the following questions:
What indicators do we need to track in times of crisis to capture
possible dramatic shifts in people's well-being? There are many dimensions
to this, such as changes in income, employment opportunities, food
consumption, health and education outcomes, but also shattered hopes and
aspirations, etc. In addition, crises impact people differently -- women, men
and children; urban and rural communities; the young, old and middle-aged;
people coping with disabilities; people living in different regions of the
world, etc. The challenge will be to identify a representative but manageable
set of global indicators that can provide powerful signals of changing
vulnerabilities on the ground across regions.
Where will the data come from? The usefulness of the chosen indicators
will depend greatly on whether reliable data sources are available. This may
in some cases require new thinking -- 'direct' indicators may be hard to come
by, but proxies may provide some indication. Also the frequency of data
collection needs to be high -- in an era of quickly hitting global crises, we
need to be as real time as possible to track evolving local ramifications.
Only a few years ago, this would have been an enormous challenge, but
technology has moved ahead tremendously. In addition, in today's world, data
is increasingly collected through many different sources. Some are more
reliable than others. We need to carefully differentiate between what is
trusted and what is at best indicative.
How can we combine data residing in different sources and provide users
with a unified view? Integrating different data streams from different
sources is a technical challenge that needs to be overcome. In this regard,
we believe that the GIVAS should not create a new 'heavy' structure, but
provide a connecting tissue linking existing data streams. Its technical
backbone should be open source so that its benefits can be shared. Data is
bound to vary in terms of coverage, frequency, reliability and along many
other dimensions. We need to address how such data can be made comparable and
used to arrive at reliable conclusions. In addition, data needs to be
presented in a way that is accessible to users -- numbers need to be turned
into knowledge. Innovation in data visualization is exciting and we hope that
GIVAS can be an outlet for creative and new ways of presenting data.
How and by whom will the data be used? How GIVAS data will be used could
and should vary -- we believe in the mantra "here are the facts, you decide"
(which we borrowed from a UN family member). However, what we do need to
ensure is that GIVAS data adds value for different users. It should help with
advocacy on behalf of the vulnerable, especially when their plight is in
danger of being ignored by the international headlines. It should give the
vulnerable a voice. The Secretary-General intends to use GIVAS data for
exactly this purpose -- to advocate, warn and call for action. Others can do
the same. In addition, we hope that the data collected could help with a
better, more targeted crisis response. As we have seen with the current
volatile mix of crises, our global safety nets are frayed. Not only are we no
longer able to help people come out of poverty, we are seeing new groups
coming dangerously close to dropping below the poverty line.
For more information, please contact the GIVAS Team at givas@un.org. Please
also watch this space for any updates.
